Few things summarize America’s economic plight today as much as this centuries-old quote:
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing…."
No one is exactly sure who actually said it and if it is an accurate quote. That is irrelevant. The important point is that the quote resoundingly points to the fatal (economic) flaw of democracy. This fatal flaw should be evident to all as they watch today’s “big picture”.
Our current deficit (and future deficits) now exceed $1 trillion. The government’s growth as a voracious consumer of America’s resources is alarming. Additionally, most state governments are spending beyond the citizenry’s ability to pay for it. Yet, it is also much of the citizenry that voted for this dangerous profligacy!
THE FATAL FLAW OF DEMOCRACY IS HERE AND NOW.
Our country is at the point that it can not sustain the government’s out-of-control growth. It is indeed a massive tragedy that is now unfolding and millions that have grown dependent on government largesse are now being set up for tremendous economic pain. How may they react?
ECONOMIC DISINTEGRATION USUALLY LEADS TO SOCIAL DISINTEGRATION.
I have often written and lectured about how government causes much more economic pain than it has ever relieved. The juggernaut can not be stopped from wreaking its havoc on our society and even the best election results in November’10 will at best slow it down. We have to treat the coming meltdown as a hurricane:
We can not stop it. We can only prepare ourselves and the people we care about.
HERE IS WHAT TO DO…
1. Become as self-sufficient as possible.
2. Reduce your exposure to the general stock market.
3. Accumulate physical gold & silver.
4. If possible, move safely away from major cities.
5. Lower your living costs as much as possible.
6. Increase your savings.
7. Start a pantry and have extra necessities on hand (just in case!)
8. Learn about (and apply) ways to secure yourself, your family and your property
9. Develop strategic relationships with others. Gain more friends and allies
10. Add more sources of income (such as your own home business).
The list is actually longer but this is a start. Look…I am not a “doom and gloom” guy. I enjoy life and I am grateful for what is in my life…a wonderful family, good friends and a business that I enjoy. But I also have to view the world, the economy and the unfolding events REALISTICALLY.
Look…I can write some of this from my personal experience and background. My former country (socialist Yugoslavia) collapsed into social chaos in 1994 after extreme economic disintegration. Places like Greece certainly seem headed that way. Our economic house is not immune to Washington’s trillion-dollar wrecking ball.
Think about it…If millions of people are dependent on trillions with debt that can’t possibly be paid, what will logically follow? What does history tell us?
These are extraordinary times that require extraordinary planning. Therefore, the prudent thing to do is…
HOPE FOR THE BEST AND PREPARE FOR THE WORST
More on this as I continue to prepare educational & informational programs to help my students and readers do some prudent planning (financially and otherwise). A good place to start is at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com where I have many information-packed seminars on business & financial matters.
Some good specific programs for your consideration are…
• Learn how to generate your own income with the Home Business Goldmine audio seminar.
• Learn about safe investing and financial planning in the $50 Wealth-Builder audio seminar.
• The newest program is the full audio seminar Profit from the Commodities Super Boom.
My webmaster is hard at work to help make these (and other) programs available as reseller opportunities too so that you can make money along with me. Stay tuned for more details later.
In a few days I will email to my Prosperity Alert subscribers some information on how to save on your taxes for 2010 (it is too late to make changes for your 2009 taxes but there is plenty you can do with 2010!). Stay tuned for that as well.
In the meanwhile, do the right thing by the people you love. When you get a chance, I would most appreciate your thoughts on what type of educational programs that you would like to see me do for you. You can email your suggestions at paul@mladjenovic.com. Thank you and be well!
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Who will Bail out the Taxpayer?
The federal government has been on the bail-out warpath in recent years. They have used taxpayer money to bail out auto makers, unions, banks, Wall Street brokerage firms and other entities. They have (and are) using taxpayer money to the tune of TRILLIONS for state governments and for massive social & military spending. The craven polticians and bureaucrats in Washington have no problem with historic, profligate spending that is heading toward mind-boggling and unsustainable levels.
The spending is reaching obscene and criminal highs and it is making the public very nervous. One of the biggest reasons for the tea party phenomena has been the alarming trillion-dollar growth of the federal government. Most of the state governments are also spending beyond their means.
WHEN WILL THE MADNESS STOP?!?!?
Tax-payers across America are tapped out. As of this moment, our federal government is on track to make matters much worse (if that is possible!).
Healthcare reform is scheduled for a vote. If it passes in its current state, it will FORCE taxpayers to pay more taxes. Much more! Since these taxes would be enacted immediately, the painful effect on an already weakened economy will be severe. WHO WILL BAILOUT THE TAXPAYER?
In addition, federal taxcuts enacted during 2001-2003 are scheduled to expire in January 2011. WHO WILL BAILOUT THE TAXPAYER?
Our founding fathers thought that "A person has the right to the fruits of one's labor" was so obvious that they didn't bother to expressly include in the Constitution. How tragic! they had no idea how rapacious and profligate our politicians would become.
Today, the most trampled "right" in America is the right to the fruits of one's labor. But what will happen when those "fruits of one's labor" are taxes away? What is left? Who will be left to pay for all the spending?
History tells us very clearly:
Every nation that has experienced a financial collapse did so because its government grew beyond the ability of its citizenry to pay for. They taxed too much, they borrowed too much and they spent too much.
Yes...much of it was done "with good intentions". In the past, those good intentions paved a path to hell. Today, however, that path to hell has become a super-highway.
Your Personal Strategy:
Find ways to cut your taxes. For decades I have taught my students that a home business is an economic necessity. I think that everyone should start a home business to add another income source to their financial situation but the second reason is that a home business can help you save thousands in taxes.
There are lots of good tax guides and you can CLICK HERE here to find one of my favorites.
In the April 2010 issue of my newsletter, PROSPERITY ALERT, I will cover some ways to save thousands on your taxes. Get a free subscription HERE.
I wish all of you continued success...
Paul Mladjenovic
The spending is reaching obscene and criminal highs and it is making the public very nervous. One of the biggest reasons for the tea party phenomena has been the alarming trillion-dollar growth of the federal government. Most of the state governments are also spending beyond their means.
WHEN WILL THE MADNESS STOP?!?!?
Tax-payers across America are tapped out. As of this moment, our federal government is on track to make matters much worse (if that is possible!).
Healthcare reform is scheduled for a vote. If it passes in its current state, it will FORCE taxpayers to pay more taxes. Much more! Since these taxes would be enacted immediately, the painful effect on an already weakened economy will be severe. WHO WILL BAILOUT THE TAXPAYER?
In addition, federal taxcuts enacted during 2001-2003 are scheduled to expire in January 2011. WHO WILL BAILOUT THE TAXPAYER?
Our founding fathers thought that "A person has the right to the fruits of one's labor" was so obvious that they didn't bother to expressly include in the Constitution. How tragic! they had no idea how rapacious and profligate our politicians would become.
Today, the most trampled "right" in America is the right to the fruits of one's labor. But what will happen when those "fruits of one's labor" are taxes away? What is left? Who will be left to pay for all the spending?
History tells us very clearly:
Every nation that has experienced a financial collapse did so because its government grew beyond the ability of its citizenry to pay for. They taxed too much, they borrowed too much and they spent too much.
Yes...much of it was done "with good intentions". In the past, those good intentions paved a path to hell. Today, however, that path to hell has become a super-highway.
Your Personal Strategy:
Find ways to cut your taxes. For decades I have taught my students that a home business is an economic necessity. I think that everyone should start a home business to add another income source to their financial situation but the second reason is that a home business can help you save thousands in taxes.
There are lots of good tax guides and you can CLICK HERE here to find one of my favorites.
In the April 2010 issue of my newsletter, PROSPERITY ALERT, I will cover some ways to save thousands on your taxes. Get a free subscription HERE.
I wish all of you continued success...
Paul Mladjenovic
Friday, March 5, 2010
THE "CORE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT"... IS HORSE CRAP!
Today the federal government released its unemployment report for February 2010. The official unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. Some economists welcomed this as a sign of a stabilizing economy. Perhaps someone should tell these economists that the official unemployment rate is misleading. It is a sign of horse crap. Why?
The official unemployment rate LEAVES OUT those folks that are discouraged and have ceased looking for work. It also leaves out those that are “under-employed”; those that no longer have full-time jobs but have settled for part-time work. In other words, the official unemployment rate…
leaves out…A LOT OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE!
The moment an unemployed person drops out of the job search process because they are discouraged and have ceased looking, they are no longer officially counted as unemployed. They end up in a more obscure (but more accurate) statistic referred to as the “U-6” unemployment rate. In the same report, this down-played rate is over 16%!
Some of you may remember an essay I did a few years ago where I criticized the “core rate of inflation” which was an official government statistic which tracked inflation but totally left out “food and energy” from its calculation. Some humorously jabbed the core rate of inflation and described it as “the rate of inflation…excluding inflation”.
The statistical wizards at the federal government have done to unemployment reporting what they did to inflation reporting. It is time for some observers to call the official unemployment what it should be called: “the core rate of unemployment”. That way the satiric observers among us can describe the official unemployment rate as “the rate of unemployment excluding unemployment”.
Personal strategy: Unemployed or not, I think that everyone should their God-given talents and abilities to start their own business. It could be home-based and done in your spare time. Don’t just diversify your investment portfolio, diversify your time and effort with active strategies for earning money. Take a look at the audio seminar Home Business Goldmine which you can download instantly at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com.
If you have lost your job or you worry about your current job, you have the ability to generate income. A part-time home business is a great way to start. I am in the process of creating both free and low-cost resources to help folks earn money so feel free to stay informed with my developments at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.
The official unemployment rate LEAVES OUT those folks that are discouraged and have ceased looking for work. It also leaves out those that are “under-employed”; those that no longer have full-time jobs but have settled for part-time work. In other words, the official unemployment rate…
leaves out…A LOT OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE!
The moment an unemployed person drops out of the job search process because they are discouraged and have ceased looking, they are no longer officially counted as unemployed. They end up in a more obscure (but more accurate) statistic referred to as the “U-6” unemployment rate. In the same report, this down-played rate is over 16%!
Some of you may remember an essay I did a few years ago where I criticized the “core rate of inflation” which was an official government statistic which tracked inflation but totally left out “food and energy” from its calculation. Some humorously jabbed the core rate of inflation and described it as “the rate of inflation…excluding inflation”.
The statistical wizards at the federal government have done to unemployment reporting what they did to inflation reporting. It is time for some observers to call the official unemployment what it should be called: “the core rate of unemployment”. That way the satiric observers among us can describe the official unemployment rate as “the rate of unemployment excluding unemployment”.
Personal strategy: Unemployed or not, I think that everyone should their God-given talents and abilities to start their own business. It could be home-based and done in your spare time. Don’t just diversify your investment portfolio, diversify your time and effort with active strategies for earning money. Take a look at the audio seminar Home Business Goldmine which you can download instantly at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com.
If you have lost your job or you worry about your current job, you have the ability to generate income. A part-time home business is a great way to start. I am in the process of creating both free and low-cost resources to help folks earn money so feel free to stay informed with my developments at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.
Friday, February 19, 2010
A Trillion Dollar Reason to be Self-Sufficient
The Pew Center for the States recently issued a report that the states are cumulatively short on their promised pension benefits to current and retired workers by $1 TRILLION. This report uses data from mid-2008 so it doesn't include the fact that pension assets got hammered during late 2008 and into early 2009. This means that the financial situation is more dire than the report indicates.
If you think you are safe because you are not dependent on a state pension. Think again. Many corporate pension plans are suffering a shortfall. In addition, Social Security's shortfall is much, much greater. Millions of current and future retirees are at risk to the tune of TRILLIONS. The growing anger toward politicians is very real and very justified.
IF YOU ARE FINANCIALLY DEPENDENT ON ANYONE, YOU ARE AT RISK.
TAKE STEPS NOW TO BECOME MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT.
No matter what the speech-makers out of Washington, Wall St. and the state capitals tell you, the situation is extraordinarily serious and a humongous shortfall looms for millions in our society. There will be massive problems with virtually everyone's retirement future unless they take steps to avoid the inevitable financial pain.
I will be completing some educational programs soon to help people prepare themselves financially during the coming months and years. If you want to be alerted, feel free to follow me at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.
Let me clue you in to what you should be thinking about in general terms. At the very least, you should be developing a two-pronged approach in your financial strategies; Passive and Active.
Passive means that you should have your assets work in your favor and not against it. In prior essays (and in future) I cover the idea that the foundation of your financial assets (stocks, ETFs, etc.) should be in investments tied to "Human need". I cover this in greater detail in my financial seminar described at www.ProsperityNetwork.net.
Active means that you are using your time, effort, abilities and initiative in creating wealth such as reducing your debt or increasing your income. I think that EVERYONE should consider having a business (part-time or otherwise) as part of your over-all wealth-building strategies. Some of you already know that I have taught home business start-up seminars for over two decades. Don't forget that you are your own greatest asset.
You can find out details at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com. I do plan on providing some how-to education on topics such as starting a business and protecting your retirement assets in the near future. Keep checking back here for details and updates.
I wish all of you continued success and prosperity...we'll get through this but not without knowledge and preparation. Feel free to email me with your questions at paul@mladjenovic.com. If I can provide a resource to help you, I would be glad to.
Regards,
Paul Mladjenovic
www.ProsperityNetwork.net
If you think you are safe because you are not dependent on a state pension. Think again. Many corporate pension plans are suffering a shortfall. In addition, Social Security's shortfall is much, much greater. Millions of current and future retirees are at risk to the tune of TRILLIONS. The growing anger toward politicians is very real and very justified.
IF YOU ARE FINANCIALLY DEPENDENT ON ANYONE, YOU ARE AT RISK.
TAKE STEPS NOW TO BECOME MORE SELF-SUFFICIENT.
No matter what the speech-makers out of Washington, Wall St. and the state capitals tell you, the situation is extraordinarily serious and a humongous shortfall looms for millions in our society. There will be massive problems with virtually everyone's retirement future unless they take steps to avoid the inevitable financial pain.
I will be completing some educational programs soon to help people prepare themselves financially during the coming months and years. If you want to be alerted, feel free to follow me at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.
Let me clue you in to what you should be thinking about in general terms. At the very least, you should be developing a two-pronged approach in your financial strategies; Passive and Active.
Passive means that you should have your assets work in your favor and not against it. In prior essays (and in future) I cover the idea that the foundation of your financial assets (stocks, ETFs, etc.) should be in investments tied to "Human need". I cover this in greater detail in my financial seminar described at www.ProsperityNetwork.net.
Active means that you are using your time, effort, abilities and initiative in creating wealth such as reducing your debt or increasing your income. I think that EVERYONE should consider having a business (part-time or otherwise) as part of your over-all wealth-building strategies. Some of you already know that I have taught home business start-up seminars for over two decades. Don't forget that you are your own greatest asset.
You can find out details at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com. I do plan on providing some how-to education on topics such as starting a business and protecting your retirement assets in the near future. Keep checking back here for details and updates.
I wish all of you continued success and prosperity...we'll get through this but not without knowledge and preparation. Feel free to email me with your questions at paul@mladjenovic.com. If I can provide a resource to help you, I would be glad to.
Regards,
Paul Mladjenovic
www.ProsperityNetwork.net
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Who is right…Paul Krugman or Ringo Starr?
Copyright 2010. Paul Mladjenovic. All rights reserved.
January 27, 2010
Ponder for a moment the following quotes:
“Everything government touches turns to crap”
Ringo Starr
“We need more government”
attributed to Paul Krugman (see below)
The first quote by Ringo Starr is an actual quote and you can easily find it on many quote sites on the internet.
The second quote is attributed by…me! You probably won’t find that quote (and maybe you will). You might even find that Paul Krugman may deny saying it but probably embracing the point. I attribute it to him as an “unofficial summary” of his writings over the years.
Why? Because if you are an avid Krugman reader (which I am) you will no doubt come to the same conclusion. In ways both overt and subtle, one of the biggest messages (maybe the biggest) from him is that he wants bigger government. He wants more spending and more debt because he sincerely believes that more government is better for the world. When someone points out how a government program is failing (such as medicare) he basic retort is that we can solve it with…more government. Yikes!
Look…I am sure that he is a nice guy and that he means well. I am sure that he knows something about economics although I am still scratching my head over why he got the Nobel Prize (I can name a dozen that I think deserve it). But, with all due respect, I wish that he knew more about economics! At the very least, I wish he had Ringo Starr’s insights. Why?
Think about the following points that you will find in Krugman’s latest writings…
“…a spending freeze is wrong…”
“…the federal government needs to spend more…”
Right now the government is spending trillions that our society can not possibly afford. Whatever government spends, we must pay for. Either we pay for it now (current taxes) or we pay for it later (future taxes). If we don’t have the money, then the government goes into greater debt. We will either pay for this massive debt in obvious ways (such as taxes) or in less obvious ways (such as inflation). No matter how you slice it, we will pay and it will be a very, very painful price. This is the lesson of history.
He has said in some columns that government spending helps to kick-start economic growth and job creation. This is both economically wrong and logically wrong. The year 2009 should be a clear lesson in this. During 2009, government spending went through the roof…yet…the unemployment rate went up drastically. He should understand that the ONLY way that government can “create a job” (such as a government job) is if it first takes resources that DESTROY private sector job(s).
When private sector jobs are eliminated, you shrink the pool of people that PAY taxes. Then…when you hire people for government jobs, you have to pay for them with taxes! In other words, you expand the burden on the private economy which in turn means less tax revenue which means sky-rocketing deficits (and more debt).
We must understand that our economy is like a “pack mule” and the government is “the cargo”. If the mule is on wobbly legs, you won’t help it move faster by adding more cargo. Why is this so hard to understand?
I can only hope that a rock star can help an economist figure this out.
----------------------------------
Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the author of Stock Investing for Dummies and Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. He is a national seminar leader and his current downloadable seminars are at www.ProsperityNetwork.net and www.SuperMoneyLinks.com.
January 27, 2010
Ponder for a moment the following quotes:
“Everything government touches turns to crap”
Ringo Starr
“We need more government”
attributed to Paul Krugman (see below)
The first quote by Ringo Starr is an actual quote and you can easily find it on many quote sites on the internet.
The second quote is attributed by…me! You probably won’t find that quote (and maybe you will). You might even find that Paul Krugman may deny saying it but probably embracing the point. I attribute it to him as an “unofficial summary” of his writings over the years.
Why? Because if you are an avid Krugman reader (which I am) you will no doubt come to the same conclusion. In ways both overt and subtle, one of the biggest messages (maybe the biggest) from him is that he wants bigger government. He wants more spending and more debt because he sincerely believes that more government is better for the world. When someone points out how a government program is failing (such as medicare) he basic retort is that we can solve it with…more government. Yikes!
Look…I am sure that he is a nice guy and that he means well. I am sure that he knows something about economics although I am still scratching my head over why he got the Nobel Prize (I can name a dozen that I think deserve it). But, with all due respect, I wish that he knew more about economics! At the very least, I wish he had Ringo Starr’s insights. Why?
Think about the following points that you will find in Krugman’s latest writings…
“…a spending freeze is wrong…”
“…the federal government needs to spend more…”
Right now the government is spending trillions that our society can not possibly afford. Whatever government spends, we must pay for. Either we pay for it now (current taxes) or we pay for it later (future taxes). If we don’t have the money, then the government goes into greater debt. We will either pay for this massive debt in obvious ways (such as taxes) or in less obvious ways (such as inflation). No matter how you slice it, we will pay and it will be a very, very painful price. This is the lesson of history.
He has said in some columns that government spending helps to kick-start economic growth and job creation. This is both economically wrong and logically wrong. The year 2009 should be a clear lesson in this. During 2009, government spending went through the roof…yet…the unemployment rate went up drastically. He should understand that the ONLY way that government can “create a job” (such as a government job) is if it first takes resources that DESTROY private sector job(s).
When private sector jobs are eliminated, you shrink the pool of people that PAY taxes. Then…when you hire people for government jobs, you have to pay for them with taxes! In other words, you expand the burden on the private economy which in turn means less tax revenue which means sky-rocketing deficits (and more debt).
We must understand that our economy is like a “pack mule” and the government is “the cargo”. If the mule is on wobbly legs, you won’t help it move faster by adding more cargo. Why is this so hard to understand?
I can only hope that a rock star can help an economist figure this out.
----------------------------------
Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the author of Stock Investing for Dummies and Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. He is a national seminar leader and his current downloadable seminars are at www.ProsperityNetwork.net and www.SuperMoneyLinks.com.
Friday, January 22, 2010
3 Things Everyone Needs to Do with Money in 2010
By Paul Mladjenovic. January 22, 2010.
Copyright 2010. Paul Mladjenovic. All rights reserved.
Yes…2008-09 was a bruising time period. Many securities plunged and many accounts were massacred. Although we got through it, there is an uneasy feeling that more trouble is yet to come.
I expect that more catastrophes are heading our way since the fundamentals for our economy are still very weak and Washington is still working on policies that will do more harm than good. In the past twelve months, our expanding federal government has added trillions more in debt to our already massive debt burden.
OUR GOVERNMENT CAN NOT SPEND OUR COUNTRY INTO
TRLLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT WITHOUT CONSEQUENCE.
I am working on my next set of forecasts and seminars but before they are out, I want everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) to consider 3 simple things to gain greater financial peace of mind:
• Diversify away from paper assets. As I have written before, paper assets have “counter-party risk”. Any “paper” investment that you have (such as stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, cash accounts, etc.) have counter-party risk. In other words, that investment’s value is tied to someone else’s promise or performance. A stock can go worthless if that company ceases to perform well (or just ceases to perform!). Bonds can become worthless if the borrower can’t or won’t pay. What should you consider? Add some gold or silver physical bullion to your asset portfolio. Gold and silver bullion are among the very few investments that do not have counter-party risk. They have their own, unique intrinsic value and that has been true for thousands of years. It will continue to be true for years to come.
• Accumulate essentials. As odd as this may sound for some of you, consider starting a pantry or otherwise consider stocking up on essentials such as non-perishable foods, extra water, etc. No…I am not asking you to become a survivalist or a hermit. I consider this is to be just another form of diversification. The world is too precarious right now and is quite vulnerable to disruptions. Severe inflation is not far off. Potential problems can come from a variety of expected and unexpected venues. What do you think will have greater value a few years from now…a dollar or a can of soup?
• Re-focus your portfolio with emphasis on “human need”. You should consider stocks and ETFs of companies and industries that provide goods and services that are actually NEEDED. Think about what people will continue to buy no matter how good or bad the economy is. I think that part of your long-term picture should include commodities.
Trillion-dollar tinkering will continue in Washington. Ongoing massive blunders and financial difficulties will need to be faced by all of us. Take steps now. You will be glad you did.
If you want to be alerted to the next financial educational programs and essays, feel free to follow me at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.
We have to be mindful of the fact that much of today’s difficulties (and tomorrow’s) is not due to some “Democrat” or “Republican” or strictly to something that is “left-wing” or “right-wing”. It is primarily due to Statism. “Statism” is the idea and practice that government should kept growing and becoming more and more involved in our private lives, businesses and finances. Unfortunately, most politicians across the political landscapes tend to be statists (at varying degrees). For the public, this is a fatal attraction since the unintended consequence is that it breeds greater dependence for more and more of our citizenry.
The problem with dependence means setting yourself up for vulnerability. Don’t let it happen! Today, there are millions of adults in our country that are dependent on others (such as government). What happens when government fails? Would you want to depend on a government bureaucracy such as the state of California or on a corporation such as General Motors (which is also dependent on government)? What other government agencies and corporations are at risk? What will happen when the federal government itself starts having financial problems? How about Social Security?
The more you strive for independence and self-sufficiency, the safer you will be.
----------------------------
Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the author of Stock Investing for Dummies and the audio “HOW TO CASH IN ON THE COMMODITIES SUPER BOOM”.
Copyright 2010. Paul Mladjenovic. All rights reserved.
Yes…2008-09 was a bruising time period. Many securities plunged and many accounts were massacred. Although we got through it, there is an uneasy feeling that more trouble is yet to come.
I expect that more catastrophes are heading our way since the fundamentals for our economy are still very weak and Washington is still working on policies that will do more harm than good. In the past twelve months, our expanding federal government has added trillions more in debt to our already massive debt burden.
OUR GOVERNMENT CAN NOT SPEND OUR COUNTRY INTO
TRLLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT WITHOUT CONSEQUENCE.
I am working on my next set of forecasts and seminars but before they are out, I want everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) to consider 3 simple things to gain greater financial peace of mind:
• Diversify away from paper assets. As I have written before, paper assets have “counter-party risk”. Any “paper” investment that you have (such as stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, cash accounts, etc.) have counter-party risk. In other words, that investment’s value is tied to someone else’s promise or performance. A stock can go worthless if that company ceases to perform well (or just ceases to perform!). Bonds can become worthless if the borrower can’t or won’t pay. What should you consider? Add some gold or silver physical bullion to your asset portfolio. Gold and silver bullion are among the very few investments that do not have counter-party risk. They have their own, unique intrinsic value and that has been true for thousands of years. It will continue to be true for years to come.
• Accumulate essentials. As odd as this may sound for some of you, consider starting a pantry or otherwise consider stocking up on essentials such as non-perishable foods, extra water, etc. No…I am not asking you to become a survivalist or a hermit. I consider this is to be just another form of diversification. The world is too precarious right now and is quite vulnerable to disruptions. Severe inflation is not far off. Potential problems can come from a variety of expected and unexpected venues. What do you think will have greater value a few years from now…a dollar or a can of soup?
• Re-focus your portfolio with emphasis on “human need”. You should consider stocks and ETFs of companies and industries that provide goods and services that are actually NEEDED. Think about what people will continue to buy no matter how good or bad the economy is. I think that part of your long-term picture should include commodities.
Trillion-dollar tinkering will continue in Washington. Ongoing massive blunders and financial difficulties will need to be faced by all of us. Take steps now. You will be glad you did.
If you want to be alerted to the next financial educational programs and essays, feel free to follow me at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.
We have to be mindful of the fact that much of today’s difficulties (and tomorrow’s) is not due to some “Democrat” or “Republican” or strictly to something that is “left-wing” or “right-wing”. It is primarily due to Statism. “Statism” is the idea and practice that government should kept growing and becoming more and more involved in our private lives, businesses and finances. Unfortunately, most politicians across the political landscapes tend to be statists (at varying degrees). For the public, this is a fatal attraction since the unintended consequence is that it breeds greater dependence for more and more of our citizenry.
The problem with dependence means setting yourself up for vulnerability. Don’t let it happen! Today, there are millions of adults in our country that are dependent on others (such as government). What happens when government fails? Would you want to depend on a government bureaucracy such as the state of California or on a corporation such as General Motors (which is also dependent on government)? What other government agencies and corporations are at risk? What will happen when the federal government itself starts having financial problems? How about Social Security?
The more you strive for independence and self-sufficiency, the safer you will be.
----------------------------
Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the author of Stock Investing for Dummies and the audio “HOW TO CASH IN ON THE COMMODITIES SUPER BOOM”.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Is Buy and Hold Dead?
Copyright 2009. By Paul Mladjenovic
www.ProsperityNetwork.net
In today’s turbulent, volatile, roller-coaster market, is the age-old adage about “Buy and Hold” bad advice? In recent months I have heard or read comments such as…
“The “Buy and hold strategy” is an archaic idea and would be financial suicide in today’s market.”
“People are better off with short-term strategies so that they can try to buy before the market goes up and sell before the market goes down. Then…when the market goes down, that is a buying opportunity. Use the volatility in your strategies”
“The “Buy and Hold Strategy” was fine a long time ago when markets were different. It is not a good strategy for today’s roller-coaster markets”
I am sure that you have read or heard similar remarks. Certainly, as you have read my essays you would know that I have written much about the “sea change” in recent years for our economy and the financial markets. There are many strategies that were fine years ago but would indeed be dangerous today.
But does a “sea change” mean that fairly reliable strategies are in danger of becoming obsolete? It certainly depends on the strategy and it definitely depends on who you are, what your financial profile is, what you are trying to accomplish and what type of assets you are investing in. Let’s take a look at “Buy and hold”.
I am sure that if you “buy and hold” bad investments then you will eventually be in trouble. However, if you “buy and hold” good investments, it would be a different story. We all know that the decade of 2000-2009 had lots of wild rides and the market had many nail-biting moments, but how did the “buy and hold” strategy do?
How did “buy and hold” as a strategy fair for different assets since the beginning of the decade?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Asset class January 2000 Recent price Gain/Loss
(high price) (Nov. 30, 2009) After 9 ½ years…)
The “Dow” (DJIA) 11,722 10,345 DOWN 12%
Nasdaq Composite 4,235 2,145 DOWN 49%
S&P 500 1,465 1,096 DOWN 25%
The value of the dollar 99.87 85.64 DOWN 14%
(based on dollar index)
Oil 21 71 UP 238%
Gold 288 1180 UP 310%
Silver 5 18 UP 260%
----------------------------------------------------
As you can see from the above table, “Buy and Hold” was dumb for some things and very smart for others. There was nothing wrong with the strategy…it depended on the particular investment vehicle.
Very recently, I was asked how I did during the recent market mayhem. I answered quite honestly that a batch of my favorite stocks and ETFs were hit very hard during late 2008-early 2009. Some of the positions were down a bone-jarring 50-70%. Did it bother me? Sure…why wouldn’t it? But these were quality securities that were intended as long-term core holdings and not capricious vehicles to jump in and out of. “Buy and Hold” means that you “measure twice, cut once”. Those stocks and ETFs were bought early in the decade and they are almost all up by triple-digit percentages…Yes!…in spite of the chaos of 2008-2009.
“Buy and Hold” as a strategy is fine. It has served me and many other patient investors well. It is still an important feature of patient, successful, long-term investing. The point is to understand that particular investment and what are the economy, financial & political mega-trends that unfold over a long period of time. Good investments will zig-zag upward over the long term while bad investments will zig-zag downward during the same time frame.
If you would like a good course on how to invest, you can check out my national seminar entitled “The $50 Wealth-Builder” at www.ProsperityNetwork.net (see Bronze package). I cover stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, precious metals and real estate.
What mega-trends do I see coming? For the coming years, I expect the commodities bull market to continue and I tell my students that investments tied to “human need” will excel. To learn how to invest in today’s economy, the audio financial seminar mentioned above will provide you with the guidance you will need. In spite of the recent stock market rally, I believe that my twin-forecast will come to pass in the next few years; We will see both rising inflation and a depressed economy unless they radically change course in Washington (Don’t hold your breath!).
-----------------------------------
Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the instructor of the national financial seminar “The $50 Wealth-Builder” and the author of “Stock Investing for Dummies” and “Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. His website is www.ProsperityNetwork.net.
www.ProsperityNetwork.net
In today’s turbulent, volatile, roller-coaster market, is the age-old adage about “Buy and Hold” bad advice? In recent months I have heard or read comments such as…
“The “Buy and hold strategy” is an archaic idea and would be financial suicide in today’s market.”
“People are better off with short-term strategies so that they can try to buy before the market goes up and sell before the market goes down. Then…when the market goes down, that is a buying opportunity. Use the volatility in your strategies”
“The “Buy and Hold Strategy” was fine a long time ago when markets were different. It is not a good strategy for today’s roller-coaster markets”
I am sure that you have read or heard similar remarks. Certainly, as you have read my essays you would know that I have written much about the “sea change” in recent years for our economy and the financial markets. There are many strategies that were fine years ago but would indeed be dangerous today.
But does a “sea change” mean that fairly reliable strategies are in danger of becoming obsolete? It certainly depends on the strategy and it definitely depends on who you are, what your financial profile is, what you are trying to accomplish and what type of assets you are investing in. Let’s take a look at “Buy and hold”.
I am sure that if you “buy and hold” bad investments then you will eventually be in trouble. However, if you “buy and hold” good investments, it would be a different story. We all know that the decade of 2000-2009 had lots of wild rides and the market had many nail-biting moments, but how did the “buy and hold” strategy do?
How did “buy and hold” as a strategy fair for different assets since the beginning of the decade?
-------------------------------------------------------------
Asset class January 2000 Recent price Gain/Loss
(high price) (Nov. 30, 2009) After 9 ½ years…)
The “Dow” (DJIA) 11,722 10,345 DOWN 12%
Nasdaq Composite 4,235 2,145 DOWN 49%
S&P 500 1,465 1,096 DOWN 25%
The value of the dollar 99.87 85.64 DOWN 14%
(based on dollar index)
Oil 21 71 UP 238%
Gold 288 1180 UP 310%
Silver 5 18 UP 260%
----------------------------------------------------
As you can see from the above table, “Buy and Hold” was dumb for some things and very smart for others. There was nothing wrong with the strategy…it depended on the particular investment vehicle.
Very recently, I was asked how I did during the recent market mayhem. I answered quite honestly that a batch of my favorite stocks and ETFs were hit very hard during late 2008-early 2009. Some of the positions were down a bone-jarring 50-70%. Did it bother me? Sure…why wouldn’t it? But these were quality securities that were intended as long-term core holdings and not capricious vehicles to jump in and out of. “Buy and Hold” means that you “measure twice, cut once”. Those stocks and ETFs were bought early in the decade and they are almost all up by triple-digit percentages…Yes!…in spite of the chaos of 2008-2009.
“Buy and Hold” as a strategy is fine. It has served me and many other patient investors well. It is still an important feature of patient, successful, long-term investing. The point is to understand that particular investment and what are the economy, financial & political mega-trends that unfold over a long period of time. Good investments will zig-zag upward over the long term while bad investments will zig-zag downward during the same time frame.
If you would like a good course on how to invest, you can check out my national seminar entitled “The $50 Wealth-Builder” at www.ProsperityNetwork.net (see Bronze package). I cover stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, precious metals and real estate.
What mega-trends do I see coming? For the coming years, I expect the commodities bull market to continue and I tell my students that investments tied to “human need” will excel. To learn how to invest in today’s economy, the audio financial seminar mentioned above will provide you with the guidance you will need. In spite of the recent stock market rally, I believe that my twin-forecast will come to pass in the next few years; We will see both rising inflation and a depressed economy unless they radically change course in Washington (Don’t hold your breath!).
-----------------------------------
Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the instructor of the national financial seminar “The $50 Wealth-Builder” and the author of “Stock Investing for Dummies” and “Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. His website is www.ProsperityNetwork.net.
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